wojtek wrote: Sun Mar 24, 2024 10:11 am
Yes, the conflict is about to escalate. The Russians lost many people in the battle of Avdiyevka
- in February, an average of about 800-900 people were killed daily. Putin's high result
in the election gives him a strong social mandate. Changing the formal name
of the special military operation to war means the possibility of widespread mobilization
to continue military operations. It is likely that this time the mobilization will not spare
young people from large and largest cities. The unclear situation with the attack in Moscow
may be used to increase and accelerate the above-mentioned processes.
Russian loses have actually been light compared to Ukrainian, the reason being was that the main weapons used by the Russians were the glide bombs and artillery, stand off weapons.
The huge glide bombs cracked open the reinforced underground Ukrainian positions killing many and many more died in the scramble across open fields to escape Avdiyevka.
There are no plans for a Russian mobilisation because they have 30,000 a month volunteering, this has been the case for a long time now. There is no shortage of men, in fact pretty much everything above is just a projection of the state of Ukraine, not Russia. There are no videos of overflowing cemeteries such as you see from Ukraine.
Putin said the special military operation had become a war because of the huge intervention by the west supplying Ukraine with all the money and equipment it needed, until it all run out, which is where we are now.
The only escalation Russia is planning is their spring offensive. They're just waiting for the ground to dry out, at the moment tanks and APCs have to travel along paved roads in convoy making them easier targets.
But even now their army is advancing and Ukraine's hastily arranged 2nd line of defence has already collapsed. Once the 2nd front in the north east is opened up the Ukraine army will be forced to re-deploy troops from areas where they're already going backwards.
Very soon they will be forced to retreat to behind the Dnipro river but even that won't be the end of it. It seems Russia has decided to take all the old Russian cities along the west bank of the river as well. The have no interest in the western third of the country so that's all Zelensky will be left with.
