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Using volume and volatility to filter out higher risk trades

Posted: Sun Apr 21, 2019 4:02 am
by Jimmy21
Forgive me if this in the wrong spot. I looked at all the options and this seemed like the closest fit.



I've been searching forever to find a good indicator to determine if a pair is trending and/or if a pair is likely to continue trending. I've been trying every indicator i can find, changing the settings, modifying them and even coding my own. I just don't know if I'm not thinking about it correctly or i'm missing something. Most of the stuff ive been trying is all the same concept, but just using different sources to do the calculations. All of the indicators ive been trying are basically just 2 lines oscillating. I've been trying to find something that would tell you the strength of a trend, whether its an inclining or declining trend. Like what the ADX is supposed to do, i just feel like that one is way too laggy. One indicator that ive messed around with is 1 line being the ema of the volume, and 1 line being a longer ema of the volume. Then i can see if volume has been higher recently. I also look if there is correlation to volume rising and trends. Or i try an ema of the volume and then an ema of that and compare the two. I've been trying a lot of the same things but with volatility. I've also been trying oscillators and just determining if the are high or low, like the ADX. I feel like i'm in a rut, looking for this. The ADX would be perfect for what I want, but it just seems to lag way too far behind.


Can anyone help me out in any way? Or give me new ideas to try?


Thanks,
Jimmy

Re: Using volume and volatility to filter out higher risk trades

Posted: Sun Apr 21, 2019 4:37 am
by FBI
yes, what timeframe you are using, every trader is a different, risk tolerance and so on
IMO is best to have so low timeframe as you can get (like ticks or M1) and there you can have loooong settings with your indicators,
just because, then you are trading like you were trading in high timeframe, and you are not, and entries/stoplosses are minimal/tiny
you can have for example 1Day MA, 2DayMA and 5DayMa in M1 chart, and some good oscillator for entries, so you can actually trade in M1 like you were trading in weekly chart.
Hope that helps.

Re: Using volume and volatility to filter out higher risk trades

Posted: Sun Apr 21, 2019 4:46 am
by FBI
something like this, that is 20 ticks per bar, 7 hours in that picture

Re: Using volume and volatility to filter out higher risk trades

Posted: Sun Apr 21, 2019 4:50 am
by Jimmy21
im open to anything, but i've been using the daily. Also, as i'm not actually doing any trading, just looking at charts, i look at many different markets. My goal is just to find something that has a consistent win/loss rate and i don't have to involve my emotions, eg, buy when indicator 1, 2 and 3 all say buy and sell when indicator 4 says to sell. Something like that


i'll take a look at some lower time frames and see if it gets me anywhere. like you say, if my ema needs to be based on the 2,400 period hourly instead of the 100 period daily, should provide the same results

Re: Using volume and volatility to filter out higher risk trades

Posted: Sun Apr 21, 2019 4:56 am
by FBI
Jimmy21 wrote: Sun Apr 21, 2019 4:50 am

i'll take a look at some lower time frames and see if it gets me anywhere. like you say, if my ema needs to be based on the 2,400 period hourly instead of the 100 period daily, should provide the same results
yes

Re: Using volume and volatility to filter out higher risk trades

Posted: Sun Apr 21, 2019 5:36 am
by FBI
Daily chart, same settings, 3 trades almost 3 years.

Re: Using volume and volatility to filter out higher risk trades

Posted: Sun Apr 21, 2019 5:41 am
by Jimmy21
would you care to explain those pictures better? that indicator looks like its trying to show reversals through price action. It looks like it says that price will change direction when it gets to the bottom/top of the oscillation. Is there a way to determine trend strength with it that im not seeing?

Re: Using volume and volatility to filter out higher risk trades

Posted: Sun Apr 21, 2019 5:52 am
by FBI
actually there were only that first trade (daily chart), what I would have taken, because, price should be middle or lower than middle of that channel, when dds gives signal

Re: Using volume and volatility to filter out higher risk trades

Posted: Sun Apr 21, 2019 5:59 am
by FBI
some other cool indicators to see trend are IMO..evwma, emavfs channel, and sve-volatility bands

Re: Using volume and volatility to filter out higher risk trades

Posted: Sun Apr 21, 2019 6:05 am
by FBI
I do not have patience H1 either, few weeks for few trades, and signals getting worse/not so accurate